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This may be beating a dead horse, but I don't think the changes in Utada's voice have to do with drinking and smoking. Well, perhaps drinking, but Hikki said she doesn't smoke (at least not very much). I'm not saying they have NOTHING to do with the changes, but my opinion is that Hikki went and changed her vocal style.

Notice in the first two videos how much quieter her voice was? I could barely hear her throughout the "Letters" performance. I would say that's the video quality, except ALL of her pre-Ultra Blue live performances are like that. It's easier to hear her in "Colors" because she's singing into a studio mic, which is clearer than a hand held. However, in both those videos, I still heard her slipping around quite a bit and hitting some flat notes. The difference in the TiL and PoL performances is that she was belting much more. I think Hikki changed her singing style so that she would sound louder- however, for anyone who knows anything about singing, the louder you get the harder it is to control your voice (due to using more breath in less time) and the more noticeable mistakes are. If Utada's voice is as delicate and light as I think it is (look at how small she is!), upping the amplitude would cause it to split and that's where those throaty "cracking" sounds come in as she's singing "This is Love" and "Prisoner of Love". That's also why her live performances of late have always gone downhill the longer she's singing (PoL started fine, but you could see her strain as she went on), and that's probably why CBTM is always cut short. Utada's voice type is already unsuited for a song like "Come Back to Me", a very traditional R&B belt-it-out-like-Beyonce tune when Utada's voice is much less powerful in terms of volume. That's also why Utada generally sings ballads very well: that's where her voice shows its true colors. Utada's singing gift is in texture and accuracy. Ballads are slow and she has time to shift between notes. Pop/R&B songs like PoL and CBTM force her to cut down on accuracy and push her voice past the point where the texture really shows through. Notice how much better Utada's performance of FYI was on CBS Early Show? It's not a particularly easy song. It's just easier for Utada because it's more of a ballad and it gives her voice time to adjust.

All of this can be evidenced by her studio performances. Utada sounds much better on CD, almost completely different according to some people, and it's not because they run her through machines a bazillion and one times. It's because in the studio, she can take breaks, record in takes, and let her voice rests when it needs to. Also, she doesn't have to belt in the studio. Less volume equates to more control, and the result is basically the opposite of what happens to her on stage. Even a song like "Prisoner of Love" can be sung in studio in such a way that Utada won't strain her voice.

So, that's my evaluation. Feel free to tear it to pieces, whoever cares to. :3

Shuri/Eli